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Revealing Your Organization's Hidden Needs: Scenario Planning for Non-profits

If the four questions below are familiar, what you are missing is a strategic plan that goes beyond the basics of the mission and programs you’ve already established.

•  “Where can we find sustainable funding sources in the ever-changing economic conditions?”

•  “We are committed to our mission, values, and programs, but what are our real organizational and operational needs to support the work?”

•  “Our Board and Executive Director are passionate advocates for the mission; how can we help them be more effective leaders and avoid burn out?”

•  “When should we be partnering with other organizations, and when should we develop our own new programs? And what do we do with older programs that need help?”

Working with Innovation360’s Scenario Development tools, we have developed a series of strategy sessions for non-profit organizations to define strategic direction and real organizational needs. These are the same techniques honed by the world’s most influential and innovative organizations.
 

A Process to See Into Multiple Futures

1. We start by honoring the history and current governance and operational models of the organization.

2. We then determine - with the leadership team - what is working and what is not, and then develop foundational and practical improvements.

Overall, the Scenario Development process aims to define the scope and limits of the organization’s strategy using where, why, and how elements, within which appropriate strategic actions (the what) will present themselves. Here are some questions that non-profits must consider:

•  What is the competitive and collaborative environment in which your organization operates? How is it changing?

 •  What are your organization’s resources, capabilities, and practices - and how do these give the organization a unique value to its members and communities? How is this changing?

•  Who are your beneficiaries, customer, and stakeholders today? Who will they be tomorrow? What do, and will, they ‘need’?

•  What is your unique value ‘sweet spot’? What will the organization do - and what will it NOT do? (It’s especially important for non-profits to define boundaries and limitations.)

•  How shall the organization, people, and activities be aligned to the ‘sweet spot’?

With Innovation360’s Scenario Development framework, we answer these questions through a series of steps that result in useful “scenarios.” Each scenario represents a different and possible future. The scenarios are described with an outline or story, and then we analyze the stories to find the real needs of the organization.

The Results: Courage, Confidence, and a Clear Action Plan

We find that the Scenario Development process reveals essential - and previous hidden - information for non-profit organizations to remain resilient, mission-driven, and aligned with their values. Organizations that have the courage to explore the uncertainty of multiple possible futures are rewarded with renewed confidence and organizational stability. They move forward knowing what the most important strategic actions are.

Another hidden benefit of the Scenario Development process is for the leaders themselves who engage in the process. As we dive into the challenges and possibilities for the organization, the leaders exercise world-class skills that are often missing in non-profits. Over the course of the sessions, we look at all attributes of the organization, evaluate local and global drivers, use visionary leadership approaches, and practice working with uncertainties. A lack of proficiency in any of these areas cause stress and roadblocks for any organization or executive-level leader.

A Case Study

An environmental and government-focused non-profit organization reaches out for strategic planning support because up to 90 percent of its revenue stream - typically coming from grants - is no longer available at the levels of previous years. With several current multi-year grants coming to an end, the Executive Director is concerned about the future of the organization, the mission, and the established programs that beneficiaries have come to depend on.

Working through the steps of scenario planning, we reveal new perspectives on the forces that exert pressure both within and outside of the organization. We develop two 20-year scenarios related specifically to the uncertainties of funding: (1) a future in which grant, and fee-for-service opportunities have gained momentum in the mission areas of this non-profit organization, and (2) a future in which funding for these mission areas has remained severely constricted.

While scenario 1 seems the more positive of the two, the result of an abundance of attention and money is that organizations with similar missions remain numerous, and there are many players ebbing and flowing in the same space. Our non-profit exists and serves its beneficiaries in a complex mix of for-profit, non-profit, government, and academic programs, all working to advance overlapping approaches, messages, and perspectives. It becomes a challenge for any of these organizations to distinguish its “sweet spot.”

In scenario 2, the legacy of our non-profit’s programs continues - but in this case, it is through alliances with other organizations in order to consolidate resources in a competitive environment. These alliances could take on different forms: partnerships and contracts for specific programs and administrative/operational functions, transferring programs and assets to other organizations, and even a full merger with another organization.

In evaluating these two simple scenarios, we highlighted that our non-profit is part of an ecosystem and needs to continually examine its unique position (sweet spot) in serving its beneficiaries. When funding is strong, the focus is how to best serve the mission within the complex ecosystem (similar to the first scenario). When funding is tight (more like the second scenario), the focus shifts to how the ecosystem can adapt and restructure to continue meeting the identified needs. This often means the consolidation of organizations, programs, etc.

Looking at the best actions that the organization can take TODAY to strengthen its resilience for many plausible TOMORROWS such as the two we described, we made several recommendations on a path forward. Most notable was to update documentation of organizational assets and programs as a basis for business case(s) for budget/funding needs as well as value to the beneficiaries. We also recommended immediately initiating new strategic conversations with similar organizations to discuss a range of possible alliances.

This is likely a multi-year process with many possible beneficial outcomes. For a scenario 1 future, the organization learns to stay closely attuned to the ecosystem and knows how to make the most of its sweet spot from year to year. For a scenario 2 future, the organization maintains good relationships in the ecosystem that strengthen its position to be the preferred recipient of limited funding or to make the best decisions about consolidating programs when needed.
By exploring and influencing these possible outcomes, and creating an empowering narrative around this process, our non-profit organization can achieve the best long-term results with the least difficulty.


Erin (Pink) Mosley is an Innovation 360 Licensed Practitioner. Contact us to learn more. 


Original post December 15, 2022 by Innovation 360, cross-posted April 6, 2023
Written by Erin (Pink) Mosley in collaboration with Innovation360
©️ 2023 Erin Mosley, Inc.
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